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Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You


At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
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Dosage Calculations Made Incredibly Easy! by William N. Scott

Dosage Calculations Made Incredibly Easy! by William N. Scott


Free Worldwide Delivery : Dosage Calculations Made Incredibly Easy! : Paperback : LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS : 9781901831030 : 1901831035 : 13 Sep 2008 : A guide to calculating drug dosages. It covers basic maths (fractions, decimals, ratios, proportions and percentages), measurement systems and practical calculations. It includes information on recording drug administration, routes of administration, and reading drug labels, and preventing errors associated with each of these.
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Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You


At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
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Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals

Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals


Understanding fractions, decimals and percentages is necessary for success-whether in class, on tests, for standardized tests such as the PSAT, SAT, or GED. The importance of these skills does not fade after school-math skills are vital to the workplace. Even in your everyday life, whether you realize it or not, you're dealing with fractions, decimals, and percentages-from calculating a tip at a restaurant to balancing a checkbook to slicing a pie, having a solid grasp of the concepts covered in Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals skills is essential at every stage of life. With fast, targeted lessons jam-packed with practice questions, this guide offers students clear and accessible instruction on mastering fractions, percentages and decimals. You won't just see how to use fractions, decimals and percentages, and work our problems using them, you'll learn important basic concepts that solidify your understanding: just what exactly a fraction, decimal, or percent is, what they represent, what they mean, and the differences between them. Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals offers an excellent quick review or as a way to delve deeper into what can be students' trickiest math areas, such as multiplying fractions, figuring percentages, and dividing decimals. Key features include: Easy-to-understand definitions (also included in a detailed master glossary at the end) Strategies for avoiding common fraction, percentage and decimal pitfalls A pretest that pinpoints strengths and weaknesses, providing vital guidance on which areas to focus further study A posttest provides proof of improvement, pointing the student on the road to even greater success in math With Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals, you're guaranteed to get it!
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Calculated Risks - Gigerenzer, Gerd 9780743254236

Calculated Risks - Gigerenzer, Gerd 9780743254236


At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics.Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics.Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was
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Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals

Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals


Understanding fractions, decimals and percentages is necessary for success-whether in class, on tests, for standardized tests such as the PSAT, SAT, or GED. The importance of these skills does not fade after school-math skills are vital to the workplace. Even in your everyday life, whether you realize it or not, you're dealing with fractions, decimals, and percentages-from calculating a tip at a restaurant to balancing a checkbook to slicing a pie, having a solid grasp of the concepts covered in Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals skills is essential at every stage of life. With fast, targeted lessons jam-packed with practice questions, this guide offers students clear and accessible instruction on mastering fractions, percentages and decimals. You won't just see how to use fractions, decimals and percentages, and work our problems using them, you'll learn important basic concepts that solidify your understanding: just what exactly a fraction, decimal, or percent is, what they represent, what they mean, and the differences between them. Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals offers an excellent quick review or as a way to delve deeper into what can be students' trickiest math areas, such as multiplying fractions, figuring percentages, and dividing decimals. Key features include: Easy-to-understand definitions (also included in a detailed master glossary at the end) Strategies for avoiding common fraction, percentage and decimal pitfalls A pretest that pinpoints strengths and weaknesses, providing vital guidance on which areas to focus further study A posttest provides proof of improvement, pointing the student on the road to even greater success in math With Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals, you're guaranteed to get it!
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Calculating Construction Damages

Calculating Construction Damages


Calculating construction damages can be complex and confusing. Written by recognized experts in the area of construction claims, Aspen Publishers’ Calculating Construction Damages is a one-of-a-kind resource providing step-by-step guidelines for valuing a claim and calculating damages. Calculating Construction Damages keeps you completely up-to-date with the changes in the construction industry, and provides new and updated coverage on: Reductions in scope through deductive changes The meaning and explanation of acceleration The use of the actual cost method and the total cost method to calculate damages The effectiveness of expanding on productivity analysis. The definition of home office overhead costs and the use of the Eichleay formula. The most recent assessment of attorneys’ fees on Miller Act claims Only Aspen Publishers’ Calculating Construction Damages leads you through every step you need to take in order to reach an accurate assessment of construction damages. Complete coverage includes: General Principles of Damage Calculation Labor Costs Equipment and Small Tool Costs; Additional Equipment Costs Material Costs Bond and Insurance Costs Home Office Overhead Calculating Construction Damages is organized by type of damage rather than type of claim. Its clear, mathematical techniques will enable you to value any claim and accurately calculate damages.
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Fractions, Decimals, and Percents by David Adler

Fractions, Decimals, and Percents by David Adler


Free Worldwide Delivery : Fractions, Decimals, and Percents : Paperback : Holiday House : 9780823423545 : 0823423549 : 01 Nov 2010 : Using a county fair, this volume explains how decimals, fractions, and percentages are calculated and used.
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A Calculating People: The Spread Of Numeracy In Early A

A Calculating People: The Spread Of Numeracy In Early A


A Calculating People is an entertaining and informative history of the birth of the American passion for numbers, tracing the history of "numeracy" from its origins in the Enlightenment to its flowering in mid-19th century America. Patricia Cline Cohen focuses on episodes that illustrate the growing skill and enthusiasm for numbers in the colonies and early republic, from the controversial inauguration of the census in Jamestown and the West Indies to the role played by "statisticks" in politics and social reform. By examining the rising prestige of quantification, Cohen sheds light on the changing ways that Americans thought about their social, political and economic relations. Now back in print, A Calculating People reveals how numeracy profoundly shaped the character of society in the early republic and provides a wholly original perspective on the development of modern America.
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Calculating Construction Damages

Calculating Construction Damages


Calculating construction damages can be complex and confusing. Written by recognized experts in the area of construction claims, Aspen Publishers’ Calculating Construction Damages is a one-of-a-kind resource providing step-by-step guidelines for valuing a claim and calculating damages. Calculating Construction Damages keeps you completely up-to-date with the changes in the construction industry, and provides new and updated coverage on: Reductions in scope through deductive changes The meaning and explanation of acceleration The use of the actual cost method and the total cost method to calculate damages The effectiveness of expanding on productivity analysis. The definition of home office overhead costs and the use of the Eichleay formula. The most recent assessment of attorneys’ fees on Miller Act claims Only Aspen Publishers’ Calculating Construction Damages leads you through every step you need to take in order to reach an accurate assessment of construction damages. Complete coverage includes: General Principles of Damage Calculation Labor Costs Equipment and Small Tool Costs; Additional Equipment Costs Material Costs Bond and Insurance Costs Home Office Overhead Calculating Construction Damages is organized by type of damage rather than type of claim. Its clear, mathematical techniques will enable you to value any claim and accurately calculate damages.
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Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk


"A dizzying, enjoyable caper...After reading this hard-to-put down thriller, you may put all your money in your mattress."LOS ANGELES DAILY NEWSWhen financial executive Verity Banks' latest proposal is axed by her boss, she decides to show how easy it is to break through automated security, hide money, and then show senior management where it is. Then her former mentor, financial wizard, Dr. Zooltan Tor ups the ante, and dares her to steal a billion dollars, invest it to earn thirty million in three months, then put the original billion back before anyone notices. To heighten the challenge, Tor and Verity will compete against each other, though Tor gives Verity an edge: she can use a computer for her theft, but he cannot....A BOOK-OF-THE-MONTH-CLUB ALTERNATE SELECTION
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Calculating God

Calculating God


An alien shuttle craft lands outside the Royal Ontario Museum in Toronto. A six-legged, two-armed alien emerges and says, in perfect English, “Take me to a paleontologist.” In the distant past, Earth, the alien’s home planet, and the home planet of another alien species, all experienced the same five cataclysmic events at the same time (one example: the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs). Both alien races believe this proves the existence of God: i.e., he’s obviously been playing with the evolution of life on each of these planets. From this provocative launch point, Sawyer tells a fast-paced, morally and intellectually challenging story of ambitious scope and touching humanity. Calculating God is SF on a grand scale.Calculating God is a 2001 Hugo Award Nominee for Best Novel.
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How to Calculate Quickly by Henry Sticker

How to Calculate Quickly by Henry Sticker


Free Worldwide Delivery : How to Calculate Quickly : Paperback : Dover Publications Inc. : 9780486202952 : 048620295X : Many useful procedures explained and taught: 2-column addition, left-to-right subtraction, mental division of large numbers, more. Also numerous helpful shortcuts. More than 8,000 problems, with solutions. 1945 edition.
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Calculate with Confidence, 5e (Morris, Calculate with Confidence)

Calculate with Confidence, 5e (Morris, Calculate with Confidence)


Calculate with Confidence provides a clear consistent format with a step-by-step approach to the calculation and administration of drug dosages. It covers the ratio and proportion, formula, and dimensional analysis methods. This popular text focuses on enhancing the learning experience of students at all curricular levels by making content clinically applicable. Concepts relating to critical thinking, logical thinking, and nursing process are presented throughout. New practice problems have been added throughout this edition and rationales for the answers continue to be provided giving the students a better understanding of principles related to drug dosages. This fifth edition addresses the increasing responsibility of nurses in medication and administration; emphasizes the priority for client care, and presents material that reflects the current scope of the nursing practice. A clear and consistent, step-by-step approach to calculations and administration makes it easy to understand.Ratio and Proportion, Formula, and Dimensional Analysis content provides you with well-rounded coverage. Pretest and post-test help identify strengths and weaknesses in competency of basic math before and assess your comprehension after Unit One: Math Review. Points to Remember boxes highlighted in each chapter help you remember important concepts.Critical thinking information that should be applied in the clinical setting to help avoid drug calculation and administration errors is boxed throughout the text. Full-color illustrations, photographs, and drug labels familiarize you with what you'll encounter in the clinical setting. Current recommendations from The Joint Commission and Institute for Safe Medication Practices are followed throughout.Caution boxes identify issues that may lead to medication errors and strengthen actions that must be taken to avoid calculation errors.Tips for Clinical Practice calls attention to information critical to math calculation and patient safety as well as issues related to practice.Rule boxes familiarize students with information needed to accurately solve drug calculation problems.
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A Student's Quick Guide to Understanding and Calculating Time Value of Money and its Applications

A Student's Quick Guide to Understanding and Calculating Time Value of Money and its Applications


A STUDENT'S QUICK GUIDE TO UNDERSTANDING AND CALCULATING TIME VALUE OF MONEY AND ITS APPLICATIONS will help you understand Time Value of Money Concepts as well as the underlying principles at work in the macroeconomy.
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Pesky Percentages: A Mental, Visual, and Poetic approach to solving percentage problems.

Pesky Percentages: A Mental, Visual, and Poetic approach to solving percentage problems.


This book is intended to be used with students between grades 4-8 who are learning to solve percentage problems. Parents and teachers can use the book to teach students how to think through math problems mentally. Students (and adults) who are not typically good math students can understand how to break down percentage problems into simple terms. It is done in a poetic approach which can be read to students in one sitting or over a course of a few days. During the course of one school week, students can learn how to solve percentage problems mentally and retain the information long term. The problems in the back of the book may be reproduced and used in the classroom or at home to reinforce the skills learned. The basic approach of teaching this method is to understand the concrete concepts first and then move on to abstract concepts. People who struggle in mathematics often try to understand abstract concepts before fully understanding concrete concepts. The approach in this book allows students to understand a normally abstract concept in a concrete way. Hopefully you will find this book and this approach as successful for your children as I have with mine.
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How to Calculate Measurements, Grades 1-3

How to Calculate Measurements, Grades 1-3


Give students that extra boost they need to acquire important concepts in specific areas of math. The goal of these "how to" books is to provide the information and practice necessary to master the math skills established by the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Each book is divided into units containing concepts, rules, terms, and formulas, followed by corresponding practice pages.
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How to Calculate Measurements, Grades 5-6

How to Calculate Measurements, Grades 5-6


Give students that extra boost they need to acquire important concepts in specific areas of math. The goal of these "how to" books is to provide the information and practice necessary to master the math skills established by the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Each book is divided into units containing concepts, rules, terms, and formulas, followed by corresponding practice pages.
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How to Calculate Measurements, Grades 5-6

How to Calculate Measurements, Grades 5-6


Give students that extra boost they need to acquire important concepts in specific areas of math. The goal of these "how to" books is to provide the information and practice necessary to master the math skills established by the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Each book is divided into units containing concepts, rules, terms, and formulas, followed by corresponding practice pages.
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How to Calculate Measurements, Grades 3-4

How to Calculate Measurements, Grades 3-4


Give students that extra boost they need to acquire important concepts in specific areas of math. The goal of these "how to" books is to provide the information and practice necessary to master the math skills established by the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Each book is divided into units containing concepts, rules, terms, and formulas, followed by corresponding practice pages.
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