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Calculating Probability

Understanding and Calculating the Odds: Probability Theory Basics and Calculus Guide for Beginners, with Applications in Games of Chance and Everyday Life

Understanding and Calculating the Odds: Probability Theory Basics and Calculus Guide for Beginners, with Applications in Games of Chance and Everyday Life


Man's daily life is full of decisional situations. Whether we have math skills or not, we frequently estimate and compare probabilities, sometimes without realizing it, especially when making decisions. But probabilities are not just simple numbers attached objectively or subjectively to events, as they perhaps look, and their calculus and usage is highly predisposed to qualitative or quantitative errors in the absence of proper knowledge. That is why a book explaining the probability concept and its interpretations and applications for non-mathematicians is a necessity. This is an enlightening journey through the world of probability theory. Its multiple goals are to help the reader understand what probability really means, to teach the reader how to rigorously perform and apply the probability calculus, even without a solid mathematical background, and to stimulate the reader to go deeper into the notions involved. In the first part, the author tries to build a clear image of the probability concept by reconstructing its mathematical definition step by step through its constituent notions. It starts with a general presentation of the conceptual ensemble word - definition - notion - model any theory is based on when trying to reproduce reality. Then, the probability notion is defined and explained starting from the classical definition to the definition for the countable case; then probability is presented as a limit and as a measure. This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability. All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life and even with challenging math paradoxes. After these points are laid out the math chapter follows. It contains all the notions and principal theoretical results that ground Probability Theory, starting with fundamental notions like Sets, Functions, Boole algebras, and Sequences, and continuing with Measure Theory Basics - Tribes, Borel sets, Measurable spaces, and Measure, ending with Field of events, Sigma-fields, Probability, Conditional probability, Discrete random variables, Classical probability distributions, and Convergence. And, of course, it includes all important theorems and results dealing with them. A special section is dedicated to Combinatorics and combinatorial calculus. Readers with no minimal mathematical background may choose to skip this chapter because the teaching material is structured for developing probability calculus skills based on algorithmic procedures. This is the subject of the chapter titled Beginners' Calculus Guide, in which the reader is taught to apply the properties of probability and to perform calculations in practical applications. The skills acquired here can be practiced on the more than 200 solved and unsolved problems and exercises in the book. Everyone should find something of interest here: philosophers and mathematicians may focus on the sections on philosophical matters of the probability model and decisional matters, students and non-mathematicians can find solid A to Z teaching material about Probability Theory and the practical person can find all the tools needed to apply and perform probability calculus without a teacher.
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The doctrine of chances: or, a method of calculating the probabilities of events in play. The third edition, fuller, clearer, and more correct than the former. By A. de Moivre, ...

The doctrine of chances: or, a method of calculating the probabilities of events in play. The third edition, fuller, clearer, and more correct than the former. By A. de Moivre, ...


The 18th century was a wealth of knowledge, exploration and rapidly growing technology and expanding record-keeping made possible by advances in the printing press. In its determination to preserve the century of revolution, Gale initiated a revolution of its own: digitization of epic proportions to preserve these invaluable works in the largest archive of its kind. Now for the first time these high-quality digital copies of original 18th century manuscripts are available in print, making them highly accessible to libraries, undergraduate students, and independent scholars.Medical theory and practice of the 1700s developed rapidly, as is evidenced by the extensive collection, which includes descriptions of diseases, their conditions, and treatments. Books on science and technology, agriculture, military technology, natural philosophy, even cookbooks, are all contained here.++++The below data was compiled from various identification fields in the bibliographic record of this title. This data is provided as an additional tool in helping to insure edition identification:++++British LibraryT033063London : printed for A. Millar, 1756. [4],xi,[1],348p. ; 4°
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Fuzzy Probabilities By James J. Buckley

Fuzzy Probabilities By James J. Buckley


In probability and statistics we often have to estimate probabilities and parameters in probability distributions using a random sample. Instead of using a point estimate calculated from the data we propose using fuzzy numbers which are constructed from a
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The doctrine of chances: or, a method of calculating the probabilities of events in play. The second edition, fuller, clearer, and more correct than the first ... By A. de Moivre, ...

The doctrine of chances: or, a method of calculating the probabilities of events in play. The second edition, fuller, clearer, and more correct than the first ... By A. de Moivre, ...


The 18th century was a wealth of knowledge, exploration and rapidly growing technology and expanding record-keeping made possible by advances in the printing press. In its determination to preserve the century of revolution, Gale initiated a revolution of its own: digitization of epic proportions to preserve these invaluable works in the largest archive of its kind. Now for the first time these high-quality digital copies of original 18th century manuscripts are available in print, making them highly accessible to libraries, undergraduate students, and independent scholars.Medical theory and practice of the 1700s developed rapidly, as is evidenced by the extensive collection, which includes descriptions of diseases, their conditions, and treatments. Books on science and technology, agriculture, military technology, natural philosophy, even cookbooks, are all contained here.++++The below data was compiled from various identification fields in the bibliographic record of this title. This data is provided as an additional tool in helping to insure edition identification:++++British LibraryT033064With a final errata leaf.London : printed for the author, by H. Woodfall, 1738. [4],xiv,258,[2]p. ; 4°
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The Doctrine Of Chances: Or A Method Of Calculating The Probability Of Events In Play (1718)

The Doctrine Of Chances: Or A Method Of Calculating The Probability Of Events In Play (1718)


This book is a facsimile reprint and may contain imperfections such as marks, notations, marginalia and flawed pages.
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Applied Probability - Kenneth Lange (hardcover)

Applied Probability - Kenneth Lange (hardcover)


Applied Probability presents a unique blend of theory and applications, with special emphasis on mathematical modeling, computational techniques, and examples from the biological sciences. It can serve as a textbook for graduate students in applied mathematics, biostatistics, computational biology, computer science, physics, and statistics. Readers should have a working knowledge of multivariate calculus, linear algebra, ordinary differential equations, and elementary probability theory. Chapter 1 reviews elementary probability and provides a brief survey of relevant results from measure theory.  Chapter 2 is an extended essay on calculating expectations. Chapter 3 deals with probabilistic applications of convexity, inequalities, and optimization theory. Chapters 4 and 5 touch on combinatorics and combinatorial optimization. Chapters 6 through 11 present core material on stochastic processes. If supplemented with appropriate sections from Chapters 1 and 2, there is sufficient material for a
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Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities: Limit, No-Limit, and Tournament Strategies

Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities: Limit, No-Limit, and Tournament Strategies


- How often does each starting hand win against a specific hand or random hand? - What are the odds of your opponent holding a pocket pair when he raises? - What is the probability that an over-card will flop when you hold JJ? - How do you determine if drawing is profitable or not? Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities answers all of these questions and more. Every single decision you make at the poker table is in some way related to odds and probabilities. Whether you are deciding to bet, call, fold, raise, or even bluff, odds and probabilities are an integral part of the decision-making process. Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities covers all forms of the game, including limit, no-limit, and tournament situations. This book does more than just show you how to calculate the odds - more importantly, the focus is on how to apply odds to make better decisions. Hilger's approach shows that you do not need to be a math wiz to be successful in poker. Simple concepts and strategies that anyone can learn will have you matching wits with the top players in no time. Some of the topics include: raising draws for value, backdoor draws, facing all-in decisions before the flop, protecting your hand, the impact of stack sizes, and much more. In addition, the most comprehensive collection of Texas Hold'em charts and statistics ever put in print is provided as reference. Poker is a fun game, but it is even more fun when you win. Expert players understand the simple math behind every decision they make - now you can too. Matthew Hilger is also the author of the best-selling Internet poker book, Internet Texas Hold'em and is coauthor, with Ian Taylor, of The Poker Mindset.
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Applied Probability

Applied Probability


This textbook on applied probability is intended for graduate students in applied mathematics, biostatistics, computational biology, computer science, physics, and statistics. It presupposes knowledge of multivariate calculus, linear algebra, ordinary differential equations, and elementary probability theory. Given these prerequisites, Applied Probability presents a unique blend of theory and applications, with special emphasis on mathematical modeling, computational techniques, and examples from the biological sciences. Chapter 1 reviews elementary probability and provides a brief survey of relevant results from measure theory. Chapter 2 is an extended essay on calculating expectations. Chapter 3 deals with probabilistic applications of convexity, inequalities, and optimization theory. Chapters 4 and 5 touch on combinatorics and combinatorial optimization. Chapters 6 through 11 present core material on stochastic processes. If supplemented with appropriate sections from Chapters 1 and 2, there is sufficient material here for a traditional semester-long course in stochastic processes covering the basics of Poisson processes, Markov chains, branching processes, martingales, and diffusion processes. Finally, Chapters 12 and 13 develop the Chen-Stein method of Poisson approximation and connections between probability and number theory. Kenneth Lange is Professor of Biomathematics and Human Genetics and Chair of the Department of Human Genetics at the UCLA School of Medicine. He has held appointments at the University of New Hampshire, MIT, Harvard, and the University of Michigan. While at the University of Michigan, he was the Pharmacia & Upjohn Foundation Professor of Biostatistics. His research interests include human genetics, population modeling, biomedical imaging, computational statistics, and applied stochastic processes. Springer-Verlag published his books Numerical Analysis for Statisticians and Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Genetic Analysis Second Edition, in 1999 and 2002, respectively.
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Numbers Rule Your World: The Hidden Influence of Probabilities and Statistics on Everything You Do

Numbers Rule Your World: The Hidden Influence of Probabilities and Statistics on Everything You Do


WHAT ARE THE ODDS YOU'LL WIN THE LOTTERY? How long will your kids wait in line at Disney World? Who decides that “standardized tests” are fair? Why do highway engineers build slow-moving ramps? What does it mean, statistically, to be an “Average Joe”? NUMBERS RULE YOUR WORLD In the popular tradition of eye-opening bestsellers like Freakonomics, The Tipping Point, and Super Crunchers, this fascinating book from renowned statistician and blogger Kaiser Fung takes you inside the hidden world of facts and figures that affect you every day, in every way. These are the statistics that rule your life, your job, your commute, your vacation, your food, your health, your money, and your success. This is how engineers calculate your quality of living, how corporations determine your needs, and how politicians estimate your opinions. These are the numbers you never think about-even though they play a crucial role in every single aspect of your life. What you learn may surprise you, amuse you, or even enrage you. But there's one thing you won't be able to deny: Numbers Rule Your World… "An easy read with a big benefit." —Fareed Zakaria, CNN "For those who have anxiety about how organization data-mining is impacting their world, Kaiser Fung pulls back the curtain to reveal the good and the bad of predictive analytics." —Ian Ayres,Yale professor and author of Super Crunchers: Why Thinking By Numbers is the New Way to Be Smart "A book that engages us with stories that a journalist would write, the compelling stories behind the stories as illuminated by the numbers, and the dynamics that the numbers reveal." —John Sall, Executive Vice President, SAS Institute "Little did I suspect, when I picked up Kaiser Fung's book, that I would become so entranced by it - an illuminating and accessible exploration of the power of statistical analysis for those of us who have no prior training in a field that he explores so ably." —Peter Clarke, author of Keynes: The Rise, Fall, and Return of the 20th Century's Most Influential Economist "A tremendous book. . . . If you want to understand how to use statistics, how to think with numbers and yet to do this without getting lost in equations, if you've been looking for the book to unlock the door to logical thinking about problems, well, you will be pleased to know that you are holding that book in your hands." —Daniel Finkelstein, Executive Editor, The Times of London "I thoroughly enjoyed this accessible book and enthusiastically recommend it to anyone looking to understand and appreciate the role of statistics and data analysis in solving problems and in creating a better world." —Michael Sherman, Texas A&M University, American Statistician
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The Probability of God: A Simple Calculation That Proves the Ultimate Truth

The Probability of God: A Simple Calculation That Proves the Ultimate Truth


Does God exist?This is probably the most debated question in the history of mankind. Scholars, scientists, and philosophers have spent their lifetimes trying to prove or disprove the existence of God, only to have their theories crucified by other scholars, scientists, and philosophers. Where the debate breaks down is in the ambiguities and colloquialisms of language. But, by using a universal, unambiguous language—namely, mathematics—can this question finally be answered definitively? That’s what Dr. Stephen Unwin attempts to do in this riveting, accessible, and witty book, The Probability of God.At its core, this groundbreaking book reveals how a math equation developed more than 200 years ago by noted European philosopher Thomas Bayes can be used to calculate the probability that God exists. The equation itself is much more complicated than a simple coin toss (heads, He’s up there running the show; tails, He’s not). Yet Dr. Unwin writes with a clarity that makes his mathematical proof easy for even the nonmathematician to understand and a verve that makes his book a delight to read. Leading you carefully through each step in his argument, he demonstrates in the end that God does indeed exist.Whether you’re a devout believer and agree with Dr. Unwin’s proof or are unsure about all things divine, you will find this provocative book enlightening and engaging.“One of the most innovative works [in the science and religion movement] is The Probability of God...An entertaining exercise in thinking.”—Michael Shermer, Scientific American“Unwin’s book [is] peppered with wry, self-deprecating humor that makes the scienti?c discussions more accessible...Spiritually inspiring.”--Chicago Sun Times“A pleasantly breezy account of some complicated matters well worth learning about.”--Philadelphia Inquirer “One of the best things about the book is its humor.”--Cleveland Plain Dealer “In a book that is surprisingly lighthearted and funny, Unwin manages to pack in a lot of facts about science and philosophy.”--Salt Lake Tribune
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Probability Theory, Live!: More than Gambling and Lottery - It's about Life

Probability Theory, Live!: More than Gambling and Lottery - It's about Life


A Book of True Discoveries in Mathematics The book “Probability Theory, Live!” represents a most thorough introduction to the Theory of Probability, a branch of mathematics. The presentation is scholarly precise, but in an easy-to-understand language. The book is a lot more than gambling and lottery! The author, Ion Saliu, has made important discoveries in probability theory and mathematics in general. For example, the most natural way to calculate e (the base of the … natural logarithm). They will be studied in schools down the road, despite intense attempts to pirate such ideas. The author takes credit for the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). He has always recognized that FFG started in the 18th century with Abraham de Moivre. The author, however, was the first to bring to light a new law of mathematics: “The degree of certainty increases with the increase in the number of trials, while the probability is a constant.” The “odds” never change, but the degree of certainty always changes. But there is a surprising limit: Absolute certainty is a mathematical absurdity. Nothing is absolutely certain – not even Divinity. Everything comes in degrees of certainty. Not only formulas, but the author has written also appropriate software to do the calculations — most of the software is still unique today and the source code intensely sought-after. Yes, gambling is studied extensively in this book. After all, theory of probability has its birth certificate signed in gambling (Blaise Pascal advising Chevalier de Méré). As of “gambling fallacies” — again, Ion Saliu was the first to demonstrate that the “gambler’s fallacy” and what he calls the “reversed gambling fallacy” are simply mathematical absurdities. The “live” factor: The book analyzes thoroughly repetition of genetic code sequences and chances of repetition of intelligent life in the Universe. The mathematical – and philosophical – analyses are totally unique. The revised 2012 version corrects the display of formulas and fixes typos (especially created by the superscript or the “raise to power” operator).
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A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities

A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities


In this, his most famous work, Pierre-Simon, Marquis de Laplace lays out a system for reasoning based on probability. The single most famous piece introduced in this work is the rule of succession, which calculates the probability that a trial will be a success based on the number of times it has succeeded in the past. Students of mathematics will find A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities an essential read for understanding this complex field of study and applying its truths to their lives. French mathematician PIERRE-SIMON, MARQUIS DE LAPLACE (1749-1827) was essential in the formation of mathematical physics. He spent much of his life working on mathematical astronomy and even suggested the existence of black holes. Laplace is also known for his work on probability.
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Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities: Limit, No-Limit, and Tournament Strategies

Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities: Limit, No-Limit, and Tournament Strategies


- How often does each starting hand win against a specific hand or random hand? - What are the odds of your opponent holding a pocket pair when he raises? - What is the probability that an over-card will flop when you hold JJ? - How do you determine if drawing is profitable or not? Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities answers all of these questions and more. Every single decision you make at the poker table is in some way related to odds and probabilities. Whether you are deciding to bet, call, fold, raise, or even bluff, odds and probabilities are an integral part of the decision-making process. Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities covers all forms of the game, including limit, no-limit, and tournament situations. This book does more than just show you how to calculate the odds - more importantly, the focus is on how to apply odds to make better decisions. Hilger's approach shows that you do not need to be a math wiz to be successful in poker. Simple concepts and strategies that anyone can learn will have you matching wits with the top players in no time. Some of the topics include: raising draws for value, backdoor draws, facing all-in decisions before the flop, protecting your hand, the impact of stack sizes, and much more. In addition, the most comprehensive collection of Texas Hold'em charts and statistics ever put in print is provided as reference. Poker is a fun game, but it is even more fun when you win. Expert players understand the simple math behind every decision they make - now you can too. Matthew Hilger is also the author of the best-selling Internet poker book, Internet Texas Hold'em and is coauthor, with Ian Taylor, of The Poker Mindset.
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Elements of Engineering Probability and Statistics

Elements of Engineering Probability and Statistics


Responding to the needs of graduate engineers and ABET criteria, this volume illustrates the essentials of both probability and statistics through computer exercises. It features a wealth of computer exercises that provide experimental verification of probabilistic phenomena and a means for calculating and displaying complex results.
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Mighty Math Number Heroes and Calculating Crew Computer Game

Mighty Math Number Heroes and Calculating Crew Computer Game


3rd thru 6th graders will have a blast with Number Heroes while they strengthen math skills & build math confidence. Exciting activities teach multiplication and division, plane geometry, fractions, graphs and charts, probability & more. Fraction Man uses fireworks & fractions become clear. Kids make their own fraction fireworks or answer questions beginning with basic fractions, comparing fractions, equivalent fractions & converting decimals to fractions. Students read graphs & charts, predict outcome & determine probability while making action figures. They test their hypothesis with the probability machine. Geobot challenges students to think geometrically. Kids build geometric shapes & designs while learning perimeter, area, congruence, similarity, symmetry, rotation & tessellations. Understanding is easy when you can visualize the concepts. Quizzo Challenge is a galactic game show. Kids compete against wacky contestants or friends, solving addition, subtraction, multiplication, division, analogy, shape identification, sorting & sequencing problems. Kids also have a blast with the Calculating Crew. Exciting activities teach multiplication & division of whole numbers & decimals, number line concepts, 3D solids, properties, money transactions & more. Captain Nick Knack is a supertrader. Citizens of Planet Havarti depend on him for supplies. Kids help Nick distribute cargo while they master multiplication & division. Visuals help kids understand. Kids explore Nautical Number Line with Wanda Wavelet searching for hidden treasure while they estimate, round, add, subtract & multiply numbers including whole numbers, fractions & decimals. 2 player option lets kids play with a friend. Kids love the Superhero Store. Learning about money is fun as kids help the superheroes buy the items they need. Children compute total costs, accept payment & make change. And, Dr. Gee does shape-shifting experiments. Students work with solids in 2 and 3 dimensions.
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A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities

A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities


In this, his most famous work, Pierre-Simon, Marquis de Laplace lays out a system for reasoning based on probability. The single most famous piece introduced in this work is the rule of succession, which calculates the probability that a trial will be a success based on the number of times it has succeeded in the past. Students of mathematics will find A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities an essential read for understanding this complex field of study and applying its truths to their lives. French mathematician PIERRE-SIMON, MARQUIS DE LAPLACE (1749-1827) was essential in the formation of mathematical physics. He spent much of his life working on mathematical astronomy and even suggested the existence of black holes. Laplace is also known for his work on probability.
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Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You


At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
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PROBABILITY GUIDE TO GAMBLING: The Mathematics of Dice, Slots, Roulette, Baccarat, Blackjack, Poker, Lottery and Sport Bets

PROBABILITY GUIDE TO GAMBLING: The Mathematics of Dice, Slots, Roulette, Baccarat, Blackjack, Poker, Lottery and Sport Bets


Over the past few decades, gamblers have begun taking mathematics into account more seriously than ever before. While probability theory is the only rigorous theory that can model the hazards of gambling, even in idealized conditions, numerical probabilities are viewed not only as purely theoretical information, but also as a decision-making criterion, especially in gambling. This book presents the mathematics underlying games of chance and provides a precise account of the odds associated with all gaming events. It begins by explaining in simple terms the meaning of the concept of probability for the layman and goes on to become an enlightening journey through the mathematics of chance, randomness and risk. It then continues with the basics of discrete probability (definitions, properties, theorems and calculus formulas), combinatorics and counting arguments for those interested in the supporting mathematics. These mathematic sections may be skipped by readers who do not have a minimal background in mathematics; these readers can skip directly to the "Guide to Numerical Results" to pick the odds and recommendations they need for the desired gaming situation. Doing so is possible due to the organization of that chapter, in which the results are listed at the end of each section, mostly in the form of tables. The chapter titled "The Mathematics of Games of Chance" presents these games not only as a good application field for probability theory, but also in terms of human actions where probability-based strategies can be tried to achieve favorable results. Through suggestive examples, the reader can see what experiments, events and probability fields mean in games of chance and why and how probability formulas can be applied there. The main portion of this work is a collection of probability results for each type of game. Each game's section is packed with formulas and tables. Each section also contains a description of the game, a classification of the gaming events and the applicable probability calculations. The primary goal of this work is to allow the reader to quickly find the odds for a specific gaming situation, in order to improve his or her betting/gaming decisions. Every type of gaming event is tabulated in a logical, consistent and comprehensive manner. The complete methodology and complete or partial calculations are shown to teach players how to calculate probability for any situation, for every stage of the game for any game. Here, readers can find the real odds, returned by precise mathematical formulas and not by partial simulations that most software uses. Collections of odds are presented, as well as strategic recommendations based on those odds, where necessary, for each type of gaming situation. The book contains much new and original material that has not been published previously and provides great coverage of probabilities for the following games of chance: Dice, Slots, Roulette, Baccarat, Blackjack, Five Card Draw Poker, Texas Hold'em Poker, Lottery and Sport Bets. No formal background in mathematics is necessary to read these sections, although familiarity with some probability and set theory notions is helpful. In most cases, readers will benefit from having some college math to follow the formulas here, but this is not a requirement because the numerical results are given as summaries and tables at the end of each section. Most of casino games are predisposed to probability-based decisions. This is why the approach is not an exclusively statistical one (like many other titles published on this subject), but analytical: every gaming event is taken as an individual applied probability problem to solve. A special chapter defines the probability-based strategy and mathematically shows why such strategy is theoretically optimal. The author is a recognized authority on casino mathematics.
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Numbers Rule Your World: The Hidden Influence of Probabilities and Statistics on Everything You Do

Numbers Rule Your World: The Hidden Influence of Probabilities and Statistics on Everything You Do


WHAT ARE THE ODDS YOU'LL WIN THE LOTTERY? How long will your kids wait in line at Disney World? Who decides that “standardized tests” are fair? Why do highway engineers build slow-moving ramps? What does it mean, statistically, to be an “Average Joe”? NUMBERS RULE YOUR WORLD In the popular tradition of eye-opening bestsellers like Freakonomics, The Tipping Point, and Super Crunchers, this fascinating book from renowned statistician and blogger Kaiser Fung takes you inside the hidden world of facts and figures that affect you every day, in every way. These are the statistics that rule your life, your job, your commute, your vacation, your food, your health, your money, and your success. This is how engineers calculate your quality of living, how corporations determine your needs, and how politicians estimate your opinions. These are the numbers you never think about-even though they play a crucial role in every single aspect of your life. What you learn may surprise you, amuse you, or even enrage you. But there's one thing you won't be able to deny: Numbers Rule Your World… "An easy read with a big benefit." —Fareed Zakaria, CNN "For those who have anxiety about how organization data-mining is impacting their world, Kaiser Fung pulls back the curtain to reveal the good and the bad of predictive analytics." —Ian Ayres,Yale professor and author of Super Crunchers: Why Thinking By Numbers is the New Way to Be Smart "A book that engages us with stories that a journalist would write, the compelling stories behind the stories as illuminated by the numbers, and the dynamics that the numbers reveal." —John Sall, Executive Vice President, SAS Institute "Little did I suspect, when I picked up Kaiser Fung's book, that I would become so entranced by it - an illuminating and accessible exploration of the power of statistical analysis for those of us who have no prior training in a field that he explores so ably." —Peter Clarke, author of Keynes: The Rise, Fall, and Return of the 20th Century's Most Influential Economist "A tremendous book. . . . If you want to understand how to use statistics, how to think with numbers and yet to do this without getting lost in equations, if you've been looking for the book to unlock the door to logical thinking about problems, well, you will be pleased to know that you are holding that book in your hands." —Daniel Finkelstein, Executive Editor, The Times of London "I thoroughly enjoyed this accessible book and enthusiastically recommend it to anyone looking to understand and appreciate the role of statistics and data analysis in solving problems and in creating a better world." —Michael Sherman, Texas A&M University, American Statistician
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The Probability of God: A Simple Calculation That Proves the Ultimate Truth

The Probability of God: A Simple Calculation That Proves the Ultimate Truth


Does God exist?This is probably the most debated question in the history of mankind. Scholars, scientists, and philosophers have spent their lifetimes trying to prove or disprove the existence of God, only to have their theories crucified by other scholars, scientists, and philosophers. Where the debate breaks down is in the ambiguities and colloquialisms of language. But, by using a universal, unambiguous language—namely, mathematics—can this question finally be answered definitively? That’s what Dr. Stephen Unwin attempts to do in this riveting, accessible, and witty book, The Probability of God.At its core, this groundbreaking book reveals how a math equation developed more than 200 years ago by noted European philosopher Thomas Bayes can be used to calculate the probability that God exists. The equation itself is much more complicated than a simple coin toss (heads, He’s up there running the show; tails, He’s not). Yet Dr. Unwin writes with a clarity that makes his mathematical proof easy for even the nonmathematician to understand and a verve that makes his book a delight to read. Leading you carefully through each step in his argument, he demonstrates in the end that God does indeed exist.Whether you’re a devout believer and agree with Dr. Unwin’s proof or are unsure about all things divine, you will find this provocative book enlightening and engaging.“One of the most innovative works [in the science and religion movement] is The Probability of God...An entertaining exercise in thinking.”—Michael Shermer, Scientific American“Unwin’s book [is] peppered with wry, self-deprecating humor that makes the scienti?c discussions more accessible...Spiritually inspiring.”--Chicago Sun Times“A pleasantly breezy account of some complicated matters well worth learning about.”--Philadelphia Inquirer “One of the best things about the book is its humor.”--Cleveland Plain Dealer “In a book that is surprisingly lighthearted and funny, Unwin manages to pack in a lot of facts about science and philosophy.”--Salt Lake Tribune
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