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Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
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Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
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Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals

Understanding fractions, decimals and percentages is necessary for success-whether in class, on tests, for standardized tests such as the PSAT, SAT, or GED. The importance of these skills does not fade after school-math skills are vital to the workplace. Even in your everyday life, whether you realize it or not, you're dealing with fractions, decimals, and percentages-from calculating a tip at a restaurant to balancing a checkbook to slicing a pie, having a solid grasp of the concepts covered in Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals skills is essential at every stage of life. With fast, targeted lessons jam-packed with practice questions, this guide offers students clear and accessible instruction on mastering fractions, percentages and decimals. You won't just see how to use fractions, decimals and percentages, and work our problems using them, you'll learn important basic concepts that solidify your understanding: just what exactly a fraction, decimal, or percent is, what they represent, what they mean, and the differences between them. Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals offers an excellent quick review or as a way to delve deeper into what can be students' trickiest math areas, such as multiplying fractions, figuring percentages, and dividing decimals. Key features include: Easy-to-understand definitions (also included in a detailed master glossary at the end) Strategies for avoiding common fraction, percentage and decimal pitfalls A pretest that pinpoints strengths and weaknesses, providing vital guidance on which areas to focus further study A posttest provides proof of improvement, pointing the student on the road to even greater success in math With Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals, you're guaranteed to get it!
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Emjoi Body Fat Monitor

Handy for monitoring the progress of dieting and exercise this device measures body fat by emitting a beam of infrared light. Because muscle absorbs light and fat reflects it the monitor records the amount of the light reflected back calculates the percentage of fat in the body part being scrutinized and instantly displays the result on a LCD screen. It will also recall from its memory a user s previous reading. Programmable by age height weight and gender the monitor compares a user s results to the standard minimum maximum range of body fat for others with those factors. It operates on one 9 volt battery (included) weighs just 2.9 ounces measures 4 by 2 by 1.6 inches comes in a padded travel storage case and carries a one year warranty against defects. Emjoi
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The Book of Percentages: Over 500 bizarre, obscure, random, surprising, and 100% enlightening facts on just about everything nothing

You will now be able to wow your friends, scare your kids, and bargain with your spouse as you use this book to legitimize bad decisions, idle threats, and risky ventures. With this one-stop statistical resource, you will have plenty of numbers to back up whatever you want (or don?t want) to do. Covering all aspects of everyday life, this enlightening little trivia book shows you that numbers can be informative yet entertaining?and work to your advantage. Inside you will learn interesting tidbits like:While 30% of all shoplifters are under thirty, 95% of shoplifters are females?just another thing for teenage boys to throw in their parents? facesDitching a diet is the fad thing to do, as 60% of dieters fail and go back to eating fatty foodsFinding a faithful contractor is much easier than finding a faithful husband: Only 10% of home improvement contractors are reported larcenous while 22% of married men have committed adulteryThe world would have a whole lot more female vegetarians if people had to kill their dinner?90% of women would give up beef if they had to kill the cowAmericans have a 40% chance of just dropping dead every dayIt?s a guaranteed enlightening read 100% of the time.
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Calvin Goozner and T. Walsh - E-Z Business Math

Release Date: August 01, 2009 more

$5.85 - $10.49
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What are you shopping for?

Calculate Percentages Back

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Express Review Guides: Fractions, Percentages, & Decimals

Emjoi Body Fat Monitor

The Book of Percentages: Over 500 bizarre, obscure, random, surprising, and 100% enlightening facts on just about everything nothing

Calvin Goozner and T. Walsh - E-Z Business Math

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